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In depth Research Report on photovoltaic and energy storage industry
- Categories:Industry dynamics
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- Time of issue:2022-03-23 16:01
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(Summary description)Photovoltaic will gradually grow from auxiliary energy to main energy, bringing broad incremental space to the industry.
In depth Research Report on photovoltaic and energy storage industry
(Summary description)Photovoltaic will gradually grow from auxiliary energy to main energy, bringing broad incremental space to the industry.
- Categories:Industry dynamics
- Author:
- Origin:
- Time of issue:2022-03-23 16:01
- Views:
Information
Photovoltaic will gradually grow from auxiliary energy as the main energy, bringing a broad growth space for the industry. Due to the excellent photovoltaic resource endowment and the arrival of photovoltaic global parity, the cost is still falling rapidly, and matching the development of energy storage, the realization of carbon emission reduction and carbon neutrality goals, the reduction of power industry emission reduction and the improvement of power generation structure need to rely on low-cost and high-efficiency photovoltaics To achieve this, photovoltaics will grow from auxiliary energy as the main energy source, bringing broad growth space for the industry. Globally, it is estimated that the newly installed photovoltaic capacity will reach about 450GW in 2025, and the newly installed photovoltaic capacity will reach about 1300GW in 2030.
1. Silicon materials: New production capacity has been released one after another, and profitability is still strong
1.1 In 2022, new production capacity will be released one after another, with an effective supply exceeding 280GW
New production capacity will be released in the first half of 2022, corresponding to a total supply of 280GW+ of silicon materials: no new production capacity will be released in 2021, 158 pieces (pieces) of 68 pieces per 1kg of silicon wafer, the conversion efficiency is 23%, and the silicon consumption per watt is 3g/ In the case of W, we estimate that the total supply of silicon material is 190GW (there may be a certain loss in actual production).
1.2 Five oligarchs, Tongwei is expected to take the lead in breaking through
Under the influence of the epidemic in 2020, the price of silicon materials continued to fall, and small manufacturers suffered serious losses and gradually withdraw from the competition. The industry has formed an oligopoly structure of five companies: GCL-Poly, Tongwei, Xinte, Daxin Energy, and Dongfang Hope. Tongwei Silicon Materials is ahead of its peers in terms of production expansion, with a production capacity of 80,000 tons at the end of 2021. At the same time, it has signed long-term orders with downstream silicon wafer giant LONGi and integrated manufacturer Trina Solar to guarantee sales. We expect Tongwei to take the lead in breaking through by 2022. The market share is close to 30%.
1.3 The silicon material has risen to a new high in the past 10 years, and the average price in 2022 is expected to be around 150,000
In 2022, after the supply of silicon material is sufficient, the price will fall rationally. We expect the average price in 2022 to be around 150,000. Since 2020Q3, the price increase cycle of silicon material has begun, and the supply and demand will continue to be in short supply. After the year, the price will continue to rise, reaching 270,000 in November 2021 The price of silicon material has recently risen to a new high in nearly 10 years, and the leading Tongwei continues to benefit. In 2021, the supply and demand of silicon material will be in a tight balance, and the price will remain high.
1.4 Granular silicon is gradually verified downstream, and mass production begins
Advantages of granular silicon: 1) The energy consumption of production is greatly reduced: the energy consumption is 20 kWh, which is 2/3 lower than that of the Siemens method, and the cost per ton is saved by 9,000 yuan. If the carbon tax is considered in the future, the advantage will be even greater; 2) The unit investment amount is reduced : The investment is 700 million yuan per 10,000 tons (Siemens method is 1 billion yuan), and the depreciation cost per ton is saved by 1,500 yuan; 3) The equipment is continuously produced, and the subsequent CCZ can be realized with the silicon wafer factory to improve production efficiency.
2. Silicon wafers: In 2022, the competition is fierce, and the leading profitability is strong
2.1 Overcapacity in the industry, we expect fierce competition in 2022, and silicon wafer profitability will decline
High profitability promotes large-scale production expansion, and the problem of overcapacity gradually emerges: Due to the dual impact of firm prices and falling costs, the profitability of silicon wafers has gradually increased, driving the industry to expand production significantly. From the end of 2019 to 2021, monocrystalline silicon wafers will enter a new round of production cycle. We estimate that the silicon wafer production capacity of leading companies will reach 342GW, and by the end of 2022, it will reach 484.5GW.
2.2 The dual-leader pattern of silicon wafers, and emerging leaders are catching up
It is expected that the duopoly will occupy 61% of the market share in 2021, and emerging leaders will accelerate catching up in 2022. With the gradual maturity of single crystal pulling technology, integrated component factories such as JinkoSolar and JA Solar have begun to expand their production upstream. The increased production capacity is released in a concentrated manner, the competition for silicon wafers tends to be fierce, and non-silicon costs have become the core of competition.
2.3 The price of silicon wafers will follow up in 2021, and it is now beginning to fall
Historically, the price fluctuation of silicon wafers mainly depends on two aspects: one is the cost of silicon material; the other is the cost of non-silicon, which mainly depends on the progress of technology. After the year, as the price of upstream polysilicon continued to rise, domestic monocrystalline silicon wafer manufacturers followed suit with price increases.
2.4 The trend of large size and thinning is clear, and the profitability of faucets is strong
The large size brings cost reduction and efficiency improvement to the whole industry chain, and the silicon wafer leader takes the lead in adjusting production capacity and shipment. The large-scale trend is clear, and the new production capacity of leading silicon wafers is compatible with 182 and 210. We expect large-scale production capacity of silicon wafers to be 220GW and 528GW by the end of 2021 and 2022. Therefore, the silicon wafer side will not become a bottleneck restricting the development of large-scale wafers.
3. Batteries: Profits will be gradually repaired in 2022, and new technologies will begin to break
3.1 The demand for large-size batteries will increase, and structural opportunities will be seen in 2022
PERC capacity is relatively excess, but the size profit differentiation is obvious, which brings structural opportunities. PERC capacity is expanding rapidly, exceeding 390GW by the end of 2022, of which 182&210 large-scale capacity is 270GW, accounting for about 70%, in a tight balance.
3.2 The degree of concentration has increased rapidly, and specialized manufacturers have emerged
In 2022, the concentration of the cell pattern will increase rapidly, and it will be divided into two camps: specialization and integration. In 2021, the concentration of CR6 will exceed 80%. Among the top 6, Tongwei and Aixu are professional battery factories, leading second- and third-tier manufacturers in terms of efficiency and cost; the remaining four are JA Solar, Jinko, TRW, and LONGi. Manufacturers, expand the production of cells to complement the integrated production capacity.
3.3 The size differentiation is obvious, and the profit recovery can be expected
Both sides of the battery are under pressure and the profit is at the bottom. In 2022, the demand for high growth and profit recovery can be expected. In 2021, the price of silicon materials and silicon wafers will continue to rise, but due to poor competition and short inventory cycle, cells cannot keep up with the increase. At the same time, downstream demand is fed back to cells, making cells squeezed at both ends. Q1-3 in 2021 The first-tier cell companies break even, the second-tier companies lose money, and their profitability has declined.
3.4 TOPCon will take the lead in 2022, and the industrialization of HJT is imminent
The battery technology is blooming more, and TOPCon has reached its peak! The efficiency of PERC has reached its peak, and the emergence of new high-efficiency battery technology has brought new industrial opportunities. , is still improving. In terms of TOPCon, JinkoSolar 16GW, LONGi 10GW, Trina Solar 8GW and other TOPcon mass production lines are all planned to be launched in 2022.
4. Components: Concentration of faucets continues to increase, and both volume and profit are fully benefited.
4.1 The general trend of integration, the matching rate of each link has gradually increased
The rapid increase in the concentration of components has led to an increase in the matching rate of each link: due to the low investment per unit capacity, slow technological changes and mainly physical packaging, the total production capacity of the industry is relatively excess.
4.2 Concentration increased rapidly, with CR5 of component shipments reaching 85%
We estimate that the top five leading products will account for 85% of shipments in 2022. In recent years, the concentration of the module industry has increased rapidly, and LONGi, Jinko and JA Solar with relatively complete brand advantages and integrated industrial chain layout are at the forefront of the industry. In 2021, CR4 will be around 88%, and in 2022, we expect the shipment concentration of CR5 to be around 85%.
4.3 Profits will gradually come out of the bottom, optimistic about both volume and profit in 2022
Profits are gradually coming out of the bottom, and we are optimistic about the recovery of single-watt profit in 2022. From the perspective of the profit per watt of the main component leader, in the case of the rising price of silicon materials, in 2021Q1, mainly due to the large number of domestic low-priced orders, the profit is basically at the bottom. In the follow-up, with the delivery of low-priced orders in 2021Q1, the glass price will be reduced to hedge some silicon materials. The price increase, the profitability of manufacturers in 2021Q2 has been restored; in 2021Q3, the demand has increased, and the production scheduling of module manufacturers has increased month-on-month, and the proportion of large-size shipments has increased and the profit has exceeded our expectations.
4.4 The 182 & 210 major trends are clear, and BIPV has become a bright spot for growth
182&210 will become the general trend in 2021, and the shipments of leading manufacturers will gradually shift to 182&210: the shipments of leading manufacturers will gradually shift to large-size shipments, and large-size shipments will be guaranteed in 2021. 70%+.
5. Inverter: Exports are accelerating, energy storage is increasing, and leading players are rising
5.1 Inverter export substitution continued and profit structure improved
Domestic companies are accelerating their overseas markets: From the perspective of splitting overseas markets, domestic inverter products have good prices and low prices. After establishing a channel brand, they quickly seized the market through price strategies. In 2020, Chinese domestic companies will account for about 70% of the global market share ( According to shipments), it may increase to more than 85% in the next 3-5 years.
5.2 The domestic leader stands out, and Sunshine Longyi has a stable position
The global inverter double-leading pattern in 2021. From the perspective of the pattern in 2021, Sungrow (31.3%) and Huawei (23.1%) are the two leaders, and other domestic inverter manufacturers such as Jinlang, GoodWe, and Growatt have a small share. u Overseas replacement is accelerated, and domestic leaders stand out: domestic enterprises will continue to benefit in 2021
5.3 The high growth rate of the distributed market, the inverter has consumption attributes, and the profit is higher
The unit price of the distributed market is higher and the profit is better. In terms of unit price, the unit price of household inverters is much higher than that of commercial and industrial inverters. The reason is that centralized inverters are more used in centralized power stations, the 2B model has low unit prices, and the distributed market is more for individual consumers.
5.4 The shortage of chips in the past two years, the price increase has transmitted cost pressure
Inverter production costs are mainly direct materials, accounting for 93%: in 2020, manufacturing costs will account for 4%, labor will account for 3%, and direct materials will account for 93% of production costs, including 24.8% for structural parts and 12.8% for inductors. Semiconductor devices accounted for 10.6%, photovoltaic system components accounted for 10%, and capacitors accounted for 8.4%.
5.5 Strong demand for energy storage inverters has become a new growth point
In 2022, the PCS cost of the energy storage inverter will account for about 11.3% of the energy storage system. The economic inflection point of energy storage has reached, the blue ocean market of trillions of dollars is vast, and a number of support policies at home and abroad have been implemented intensively. It is estimated that by 2025, the newly installed energy storage capacity in the world will reach 131GW/318GWh, and the compound growth rate from 2021 to 2025 will be 79%. %.
6. Tracking bracket: the bottom of profitability has been reached, and the penetration rate has accelerated
6.1 The tracking bracket industry has a broad space, and the penetration rate continues to increase
The stent industry has a broad industry space: the stent industry is mainly composed of fixed stents and tracking stents. The market size in 2021 will be around 61.8 billion yuan, and the future space will be further expanded.
6.2 High penetration rate overseas, domestic acceptance continues to improve
The U.S. market occupies half of the country, and the penetration rate of tracking brackets reaches 70%: the United States is the world's largest tracking bracket market. In 2020, the shipments of tracking brackets in the US market reached 22.36GW. In 2019, the penetration rate of tracking brackets in ground power stations in the United States reached 70%. Mainly due to the US geographical conditions, mature technology and low price sensitivity.
6.3 Overseas leading tracking brackets, large space for domestic alternatives
The foreign business leads the tracking bracket, and the pattern is stable. Compared with fixed brackets, tracking brackets have higher technical thresholds. Currently, European and American companies occupy the top four in the market, and the pattern is relatively stable. Overseas manufacturers have formed certain user habits by relying on mature solutions. We expect 2021 CR4 to account for 65%, with US companies NEXTracker and Array Technologies consistently occupying the top two positions.
Seven, plastic film: excellent competition pattern, improved profit structure
7.1 Excellent competitive landscape, Foster's leading position
The domestic replacement is gradually completed, Foster's leading position is stable, and Haiyou will grow into the second dragon. EVA film has strong technical barriers in production, and is highly specialized in formulation, modification technology, production process, and key production equipment.
7.2 The supply of plastic film is gradually oversupplied, and the bottom of the profit has been found, waiting for the recovery
The leader leads the industry to expand production, and the supply is gradually oversupplied. The leading Foster's production capacity in 2021 will increase by 35% to 1.35 billion square meters, with a stable oligopoly; Haiyou New Materials will accelerate the expansion of production, and by the end of 2021, the production capacity will reach 600 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 200%.
7.3 The supply of particles is tight, and the profitability of particles and films will increase in 2022
In 2022, the expansion of particle production is limited, and the supply is tight. The cost of the film is mainly composed of particles, accounting for nearly 90%, and the price of the particles determines the cost of the film. In 2021, Q3 photovoltaic-grade particles will be in short supply and prices will rise.
7.4 Thinning promotes the increase in the value of single flat film, and double glass promotes the improvement of profit structure
Thinning promotes the increase of the gram weight per square meter and the increase of the value. As the silicon wafer becomes thinner and the size of the cell becomes larger, the welding strip connecting the positive and negative electrodes of the cell becomes thicker, so a thicker film is needed as a buffer, and the weight of the film gradually increases. The average weight of the 2021H1 film is about 500g/m^2, the value of film per square meter has increased.
Eight, glass: double glass speed up, the leading share is further increased
8.1 Double-lead pattern, the strong one with overweight capacity is Hengqiang
The Xinyi + Follett double-leading structure is stable, and the strong ones with overweight production capacity are always strong. In 2021, glass will be affected by the price game in the main industry chain, and the price will be reduced in April, and the expansion of second and third-tier manufacturers will be postponed. In 2022, 60% of the expanded production capacity will be the two leaders of Follett and Xinyi.
8.2 Accelerating the construction of leading production capacity and matching the release of demand
The expansion of photovoltaic glass production capacity matches the release of demand. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Cement Glass Industry" clarifies that considering the rapid growth of photovoltaic glass demand, it is stipulated that from August 1, 2021, the photovoltaic rolled glass production line does not need to undergo capacity replacement. sequential expansion.
Energy storage: the industry is in the ascendant, and the market is a blue ocean of trillions
1. Domestic strong allocation policy to accelerate the development of energy storage
Domestic policies are intensively implemented, and follow-up policies are more catalyzed. Since the end of July 2021, domestic policies have been frequently implemented, and the guiding opinions propose that the installed capacity will reach 30GW+ in 2025, and the comprehensive market-oriented development of new energy storage will be realized by 2030.
2 The outbreak of overseas markets, the European and American markets lead
The overseas market took the lead in bursting out, and public projects resonated with the needs of households. In 2020, the U.S. energy storage market will explode and become the third largest energy storage market in the world. Public utility energy storage projects will be implemented in a concentrated manner, which will be an important increase from 2021 to 2024. At the same time, the unstable power supply will stimulate the demand for household energy storage. We predict that by 2030 The new energy storage demand in the United States will reach 138GW/441GWh in 2018.
3 A blue ocean of trillions of energy storage, the industry is in the ascendant
The energy storage industry is in the ascendant, and the competition pattern is gradually emerging. The energy storage industry chain is mainly composed of battery cells + PCS + BMS + EMS, among which the cost of battery cells will account for 58.8% in 2022, and the costs of PCS and BMS will account for 12.1% and 10.4% respectively.
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